Image courtesy CTBUH
In 2012, the Council on Tall Buildings and Urban Habitat (CTBUH) published a research paper titled Tallest 20 in 2020: Era of the Megatall – The Projected World’s Tallest 20 Skyscrapers in the Year 2020. Now, the CTBUH research and editorial teams reviewed the projections they made in 2012, the assumptions that guided them, and the roller-coaster reality of what has come hence. Here are some of them.
1. Prediction: “By 2020, we can expect that at least eight mega-tall buildings (of 600 m [1969 ft] or greater height) will exist worldwide.”
Reality: “In the second quarter of 2020, there are three mega-tall buildings in existence. These are the Burj Khalifa, Dubai, Shanghai Tower, Shanghai, and Makkah Royal Clock Tower Hotel, Mecca.”
2. Prediction: “We can predict that in a mere two decades (2000 to 2020), the height of the ‘World’s Tallest Building’ will have more than doubled.”
Reality: The world’s tallest building(s) in 2000 were the Petronas Twin Towers in Kuala Lumpur, which rise to 452 m (1483 ft), each. In 2020, the Burj Khalifa remains the world’s tallest building at 828 m (2717 ft) (and has been since 2010), which is 1.8 times the height of the Petronas Twin Towers.
3. Prediction: “China will have 10 of the 20 world’s tallest buildings in 2020.”
Reality: In 2020, China has 13 of the world’s 20 tallest buildings. The building boom was even more robust than predicted in 2012.
4.Prediction: “South Korea could potentially have three of the world’s 20 tallest buildings in 2020.”
Reality: South Korea has one of the world’s 20 tallest buildings in 2020, Lotte World Center in Seoul (555 m [1821 ft]). It is currently the world’s fifth-tallest building.
5. Prediction: “Saudi Arabia will have two of the 20 world’s tallest buildings in 2020.”
Reality: Saudi Arabia has one of the world’s 20 tallest buildings, the Makkah Royal Clock Tower.
6. Prediction: “The United Arab Emirates [UAE] will have two of the 20 world’s tallest buildings in 2020.”
Reality: The UAE has the world’s tallest building, Burj Khalifa.
7. Prediction: “Asia will house 70 percent of the world’s 20 tallest buildings in 2020 (14), the Middle East will have 25 percent (five), and North America will have just one building, or five percent, and the only one in the western hemisphere.”
Reality: Asia in fact has 80 percent (16) of the world’s 20 tallest buildings. The Middle East has 10 percent (two), Europe has five percent (one), and North America has five percent (one).
8. Prediction: “South and Southeast Asia, including Indonesia, India, and Vietnam, seem ready to become one of the next centers of skyscraper construction.”
Reality: In general terms, the statement is borne out. In 2010, Indonesia had 39 buildings over 150 m (492 ft) completed. Between 2012 and 2020, 69 more such buildings were constructed, and in 2020, 21 more were under construction. In India, 13 buildings over 150 m were in existence. Between 2012 and 2020, 58 buildings in that range were built, and in 2020, 17 more were under construction. In Vietnam, only one building of 150 m or greater height had been constructed by 2010. Between 2012 and 2020, 28 such buildings were built, and by 2020, five more were under construction.
